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Winning Marble

Age 14 to 16
ShortChallenge Level Yellow starYellow starYellow star
Secondary curriculum
  • Problem
  • Solutions


   

Probability of getting a white marble:
$\frac12\times(${proportion white in box 1} $+$ {proportion white in box 2}$)$



If half the marbles in each box are white,
the probability that she wins her freedom is $\frac12$


Otherwise, one box will be more than $\frac12$ white and the other will be less than $\frac12$ white.

To maximise her probability of freedom we need to get as close to $1$ in one box and to $\frac12$ in the other box as possible. We do this by putting just one white marble in one box:






Probability of freedom is $\frac12\times(1+\frac9{19})=\frac{28}{38}$, which is nearly $74\%$.

You can find more short problems, arranged by curriculum topic, in our short problems collection.

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The NRICH Project aims to enrich the mathematical experiences of all learners. To support this aim, members of the NRICH team work in a wide range of capacities, including providing professional development for teachers wishing to embed rich mathematical tasks into everyday classroom practice.

NRICH is part of the family of activities in the Millennium Mathematics Project.

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